1. Sahel Upheaval & The Alliance of Sahel States (AES)
•ECOWAS Fracture & Military Alliances: Following consecutive military takeovers, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger formally exited the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in early 2024 and consolidated the Alliance of Sahel States (Alliance des États du Sahel - AES) into a confederation.
•Geopolitical Realignment:
•Expulsion of French counter-insurgency troops (ending Operation Barkhane) and US military drone bases (Agadez Base 201 in Niger).
•Expansion of Russian security assistance via the reorganized Africa Corps (formerly Wagner Group).
•Resource nationalism over critical minerals: Niger revoked operating permits for major French-owned uranium mines (Imouraren), while Mali revised its mining code to capture greater sovereign equity in gold extraction.
•2025 Coup Landscape (Anadolu / AU Data): Africa recorded two successful military coups in 2025 (Madagascar and Guinea-Bissau), alongside a foiled coup attempt in Benin, highlighting ongoing constitutional vulnerability.
2. Sudan Civil War: Humanitarian Catastrophe & Regional Spillover
•Belligerents & Frontlines: Erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) commanded by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo ('Hemedti').
•Over 150,000 deaths and more than 12 million people internally displaced or pushed as refugees into Chad, South Sudan, and Egypt—creating the world's largest displacement crisis.
•Formal declarations of famine in North Darfur (Zamzam camp) and parts of Khartoum under IPC Phase 5 metrics.
•Widespread destruction of Port Sudan infrastructure and interruption of oil pipelines transporting crude from landlocked South Sudan to the Red Sea.
3. Great Lakes & The DRC-Rwanda Interstate Conflict
•M23 Rebellion & Eastern DRC Dynamics: The March 23 Movement (M23)—an armed rebel coalition operating across North Kivu province—captured key transit corridors around Goma.
•Interstate War Categorization (SIPRI 2026): SIPRI explicitly classified the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) vs. Rwanda conflict among the six active interstate wars in 2025, citing extensive direct military engagement and logistical backing by the Rwandan Defence Force (RDF).
•Strategic Mineral Nexus: Eastern DRC holds over 70% of global coltan (tantalum) reserves, alongside massive deposits of cobalt, copper, gold, and tin, critical to the global consumer electronics, aerospace, and energy transition supply chains.
4. Horn of Africa & Red Sea Chokepoints
•Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU: Landlocked Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with the breakaway region of Somaliland to lease a 20-km strip of Red Sea coastline for a naval base and commercial port access (Berbera), triggering diplomatic confrontation with Somalia and the African Union.
•Djibouti: Remains the world's premier military outpost hub, hosting sovereign military bases for the United States (Camp Lemonnier), France, China, Japan, and Italy overlooking the Bab-el-Mandeb strait.