1. The Critical Minerals Geopolitical Matrix
•Mine vs. Refining Chokepoint: While geological deposits are geographically dispersed, refining and chemical processing represent the true geopolitical bottleneck. China controls over 60% of worldwide mining processing and 85–90% of refining capacity for rare earth elements (REEs), cobalt, lithium, and graphite.
•Geographical Concentrations:
•Lithium Triangle: Chile, Argentina, and Bolivia account for over 50% of global lithium reserves (predominantly in continental salt brines / salars). Australia remains the top hard-rock spodumene producer.
•Cobalt: The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) supplies over 70% of global mined cobalt, predominantly refined in China.
•Nickel: Indonesia produces over 50% of global refined nickel, leveraging High-Pressure Acid Leach (HPAL) technology backed by Chinese investment.
•Export Restrictions: China implemented licensing controls and export curbs on gallium, germanium, and antimony, essential for semiconductor fabrication and military infrared optics.
2. The Global Nuclear Renaissance & SMRs
•Shift to Baseload Nuclear: Following the 2023–2026 energy crises, over 25 countries pledged at COP declarations to triple nuclear capacity by 2050.
•Small Modular Reactors (SMRs): Pre-fabricated nuclear reactors producing up to 300 MWe per module (compared to 1,000+ MWe for conventional reactors). SMRs offer passive safety features, smaller containment footprints, and scalability for data centres, remote mining sites, and seawater desalination.
•Fuel Cycle & Uranium Geopolitics: High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU - enriched between 5% and 20% U-235) represents a key bottleneck, with Western nations seeking to replace Russian enrichment monopolies.